Article Source:
Core Thesis The article argues that while the Trump administration has been overtly pro-crypto (e.g., establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve), its broader National Strategy—focused on aggressive domestic growth, tariffs, and industrial repatriation—is creating a macroeconomic environment that prevents interest rates from falling as low as crypto investors desire.
Key Points
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The "Obsession": Crypto markets and investors have been fixated on the return of "easy money" and low interest rates to drive the next phase of the bull market, assuming that a pro-business administration would lead to looser monetary conditions.
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The "Reality Check": Trump's "America First" economic policies are inherently inflationary or capital-intensive. Measures such as high tariffs and fiscal spending to boost US manufacturing sustain inflationary pressure, which forces the Federal Reserve (or the bond market) to keep interest rates and Treasury yields higher for longer.
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Macro vs. Sector Support: There is a divergence between the administration's sector-specific support (regulatory clarity, strategic reserves) and its macro-economic impact. While the regulatory headwinds are gone, the "liquidity tailwind" of low rates is being blocked by the administration's own economic strategy.
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Implication for Investors: The article warns investors that they cannot rely solely on the "Trump Trade" narrative of deregulation; they must also contend with a high-rate environment that challenges the valuation of risk assets like cryptocurrencies.